Thursday, October 6, 2016

Hurricane Matthew Key Points

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the east
coast of Florida tonight.

2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia.  However, a small deviation to the right could keep the
hurricane-force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast
Georgia and South Carolina.

3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern
North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center
of Matthew remains offshore.

4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.