Friday, October 7, 2016

Hurricane Matthew 10/7/2016 5 a.m. Update




KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains along extensive portions of
the east-central and northeast coast of Florida today.

2.  Evacuations are not just a coastal event.  Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to
a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South
Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one
location.  Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the
NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore
within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia.  Modest
deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds
offshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the
hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South
Carolina.

5.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.