KEY MESSAGES:
1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's category 3 winds have
remained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far,
but this should not be a reason to let down our guard. Only a
small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these
winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains
hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the
coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia today.
2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants
of high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular
risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will
average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the
surface.
3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains
offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation
from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from
Florida to North Carolina.
4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
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